Panel industry development status analysis

In recent years, although Japanese panel manufacturers have mastered a large number of key technologies, they have gradually lost their competitive advantage in price and continuously compressed panel production capacity, which is concentrated in South Korea, Taiwan and mainland China.Chinese mainland panel capacity rapid expansion, will soon become the world's largest LCD panel production base.

After years of efforts, the output of liquid crystal panels in mainland China has ranked second in the world, with rapid growth of independent core technologies and increasing discourse power in the global industry. In LCD TV panels, the Chinese mainland panel manufacturers have accounted for 30 percent of the global shipments, reaching 0.With 7.7 billion tablets, it surpassed Taiwan's 25.5 percent market share for the first time and ranked second in the world after South Korea.In 2015, the production capacity of LCD in mainland China was about 49.48 million square meters.

Chart 1£º2010£­2017 China's LCD industry development scale (unit: 10,000 square meters)

Source: Foresight industry research institute organization

Thanks to the support of the government, domestic panel manufacturers have developed rapidly and emerged many strong enterprises, such as boe.By the fourth quarter of 2016, boe's global market share continued to increase: the market share of LCD screens for smart phones, tablet computers and laptop computers was the first in the world, the display screen was the second in the world, and the TV LCD remained the third in the world.

Chart 2£ºGlobal panel manufacturers market share changes£¨Unit£º£¥£©

Source: Foresight industry research institute organization

Although China's panel industry has made a major breakthrough, but local manufacturers technology is still weak, especially in the high-end product field from South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and other places to import LCD panels.Especially in the development of new technologies, there is still a large technological gap with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan enterprises, and they are still in the stage of technological catch-up on the whole.And the self-sufficiency rate of liquid crystal panel is still low, the self-sufficiency rate is only 30%, the external dependence of the products is great, which affects the long-term development of domestic LCD panel industry to some extent.

In addition, under the backward environment of domestic industrial production chain, product technology level and innovation mechanism, the industry may have the situation of overcapacity, and the potential worry of overcapacity still exists.

Future trend analysis of panel industry

First, consumption upgrades drive large panels to boom.Since 2016, panel prices have been bottoming out and picking up, indicating that the demand for large-size TVS remains booming, which leads to higher prices of large-size panels.From the perspective of the supply and demand of large-sized LCD panels, as the traditional off-season in the first quarter of 2017, the demand for LCD panels below 48 inches decreased, while the demand for large-sized panels such as 50 inches, 55 inches and 65 inches continued to rise.It can be seen that although the overall growth rate of the panel industry is limited, the growth rate of demand for large-sized panels remains relatively high.

Chart 3£º2012£­2017 LCD TV average size change trend£¨Unit£ºinch£©

Source: Foresight industry research institute organization

Secondly, with the continuous increase in the consumption of consumer electronics in households around the world, the downstream demand for display panels will continue to flourish, and the diversified demand for panel applications will drive the continuous upgrading of panel technology.

Third, OLED is experiencing leapfrog development.It is estimated that the market space of OLED screen will reach 87.33 billion us dollars by 2020, corresponding to compound growth rate of 73%, mainly used in TV and mobile phones.It is expected that in 2018-2019, the TV market is expected to surpass the mobile phone market to become the largest market of OLED application. Market segments such as PC, VR, wearable devices and automobiles will also enrich the application scene of OLED and achieve high growth.

Chart 4£º2016£­2020 Global OLED market size forecast£¨Unit: $100 million£©

Source: Foresight industry research institute organization

Fourthly, in terms of technology, reducing power consumption has always been a problem faced by various manufacturers, especially for mobile devices. In the case of slow development of battery technology, as the component with the highest power consumption, the power consumption of LCD screen largely determines the standby time of mobile devices. In addition to LCD panel opening rate, TFT material and other aspects, LCD panel factory will also start from the drive circuit to further reduce the consumption of LCD screen.In the future, the government will adjust its policies to focus on supporting the research and development of new generation display technologies.Display industry need accelerate the upgrading of the industry, from "quantity" to "quality", at the same time in the downstream to expand the application of emerging display fields, rather than low level of repeated construction.

Finally, South Korea's LG DISPLAY and samsung DISPLAY have fallen apart in the global market for large LCD panels under the onslaught of Chinese and Taiwanese companies.In the future, South Korea's market position in LCD will shrink, while Chinese mainland and Taiwan companies will grab more market share.Today's panel industries occupied by South Korea, mainland China and Taiwan. According to the current development momentum, the Chinese mainland is expected to become the world's largest by 2019.

Chart 5£ºChina has emerged as the third pole of the global LCD industry

Source: Foresight industry research institute organization